The Bank of Canada Just Raised Rates and Wheat Bids Slipped: Price Your Carry Before You Hold Another Bushel
A quarter-point hike and softer wheat bids make the cost of holding grain a real number this fall, and our own desk shows how thin the winter spread is.
Two pieces of news landed on Wednesday that every farmer holding unpriced grain should read together. The Bank of Canada raised its policy rate by a quarter point to 2.5 per cent, the first increase since July 2023. And the weekly Prairie wheat survey showed cash bids sliding again. One makes holding grain more expensive. The other makes the grain you are holding worth a little less.
What the Bank said
Governor Tiff Macklem said further increases may be needed, and that the Bank will proceed carefully given the uncertainty. Inflation ran at 3.1 per cent in September, above the top of the Bank’s target range, with energy and transportation costs doing most of the damage. The Bank expects inflation to finish the year near 3.5 per cent and stay around 3 per cent through most of 2027. The next decision is December 9.
Some economists argued against the hike, pointing to weak hiring and U.S. trade friction. Reasonable people can disagree. What matters on the farm is that your operating line just got more expensive, and the Bank has told us it may not be done.
What wheat did
The Western Producer’s weekly survey had average cash bids for Canadian Western Red Spring down C$7.60 to C$13.80 a tonne on the week. Averages ran from C$282.70 in southeast Saskatchewan to C$311.40 in southern Alberta. Durum bids fell C$10 to C$15.60. The cause was weaker U.S. futures: Minneapolis December spring wheat closed Tuesday at US$6.285 a bushel, down 33.25 cents. That happened despite a good export pace at home. Canadian wheat exports are 5.08 million tonnes so far this crop year, against 4.28 million a year ago.
So demand is not the problem. A weak U.S. market is dragging bids lower, and you do not control that.
What our desk saw
Our own trading was steady rather than exciting. Number 1 CWRS at 14 per cent protein traded at C$9.75 a bushel for delivery through November. Feed barley traded at C$295 a tonne delivered in southern Alberta for November, and feed wheat also traded at C$295 a tonne delivered there for January to March. Offers for January barley were posted at C$305, against C$298 for November. That is a C$7 a tonne reward for waiting two months.
Run the carry arithmetic
Here is an illustration, not a forecast. Say you borrow against C$295 grain at 7 per cent. Two months of interest on a tonne is roughly C$3.40. Add shrink, handling and the risk of a warm spell in the bin, and a C$7 spread is thin. Stretch it to May and the numbers change, but so does your exposure to this market and to the next rate decision.
The point is not that you should sell everything. The point is that the answer now depends on your own borrowing cost, and that cost moved today. A farmer with cash in the bank and dry bins can reasonably wait. A farmer with a stretched operating line and a spring input bill coming should look hard at moving the bushels that are already priced to cover costs.
What to do this week
Call your lender and ask what rate you are actually paying on the operating line. Write down what it costs you per tonne per month to carry grain. Then compare that to the forward bids your buyer will give you. If the forward bid does not beat today’s cash by more than your cost, take the cash on that block and use the money to reduce debt or pre-pay inputs where it earns you something.
Watch the December 9 rate decision, the U.S. wheat close, and weather for the last of the harvest. This is how I look at it, not advice for your farm, so run it by your own marketing adviser.
By Joel Merkosky, Chief Operating Officer, Johnston’s Grain
Have Grain to Market?
Johnstons Grain continues to work with buyers and producers across Western Canada, sourcing grain and identifying opportunities across multiple markets.
For current bids, available movement windows or marketing inquiries, contact our grain marketing team.
| In Search of The Following Grains | Location |
| Malt Barley | Copeland or Synergy ONLY | Calgary & Surrounding Areas | East-Central AB |
| Organic Brown Flax | Delivered to Saskatchewan Facility | November |
Market information is provided for general reference. Prices, movement windows and buyer specifications are subject to change and confirmation.
CHEMICAL BASE PRICING:
Glyphosate 540: $6.09/L
Glufosinate 150: $5.09/L
Glufosinate 200: $7.99/L
Diquat 240: $7.99/L
Liquid H: $1.80/L
Imazamox+Bentazon: $30.09/L
- 500L or 1000L Totes (Subject to Availability)
Company Directory & Locations
Calgary Head Office
Hours: 8:00AM-5:00PM Monday to Friday
Address: Suite 2800, 150 – 9th Ave SW, Calgary AB
Phone:1.844.324.7778
Email: info@johnstonsgrain.com
Maple Creek, SK Facility (Warehouse & Retail Location)
Hours: 8:00AM-5:00PM Monday to Friday
Address: 7218 SK-21, Maple Creek, SK
Manager and Sales Lead: Terry Sunderland
Phone: 1.639.574.0116
Email:terry@johnstonsgrain.com
Crop Protection
Calgary Northeast (Calgary Office): Garrett Forster – (604) 613-8813 (garrett.forster@johnstonsgrain.com)
Calgary South (Calgary Office): Kurt Paskal – (403) 899-0308 (kurt@johnstonsgrain.com)
Edmonton, AB Area: Devan Launer – (780) 239-4786 (devan@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Northwest, SK (Lashburn): Kylar Hope – (306) 361-0053 (kylar@johnstonsgrain.com)
Southwest-Sask: Randy Adrian – (306) 294-0042 (randy@johnstonsgrain.com)
Sask & Mb: Karlee Stanhope – (306) 434-7637 (karlee@johnstonsrgrain.com)
Grain Brokerage
Garrett Forster | Sr Grain Broker – (604) 613-8813 (garrett.forster@johnstonsgrain.com)
Kurt Paskal | Sr Grain Broker – (403) 899-0308 (kurt@johnstonsgrain.com)
Karlee Stanhope | Sr Grain Broker – (306) 434-7637 (karlee@johnstonsgrain.com)
Carli Miller | Jr Grain Broker – (1833) 324-7778 (carli@johnstonsgrain.com)
Agronomists
Deepak Chaunkaria: (844) 324-7778 ( deepak@johnstonsgrain.com)
Randy Adrian: (306) 294-0042 (randy@johnstonsgrain.com)
Regenerative Agronomy
Dr. Clemence Muitire, PHD Soil Science | Director of Regenerative Agronomy: (403) 585-3518 (clemence@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Frank Koch, Regenerative Agronomist: (403) 632-6066 (frank@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Travis Albrecht, Director of Johnston’s Regenerative: (403) 502-6332 (travis@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Michael Launer, Director of Johnston’s Regenerative: (780) 232-0358 (michael@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Trades Update
Johnstons Grain
| Commodity | Contract date | Grade | Price | Quantity | Seller location | Shipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWRS Wheat | Oct 29, 2026 | #1 – 13.5+ CWRS, Max 14.5% moisture, Min 60lbs | $9.50/bu | Approx Gross 870mt (32,000bu) | Milo, AB | 11/02/26 – 11/27/26 |
| Yellow Peas | Oct 29, 2026 | #2, glyphos free, <14.5% Moisture, soy free, | $10.00/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 84 Mt | Erickson, MB | 11/01/26 – 01/31/27 |
| Corn | Oct 29, 2026 | 2cw, <15.5% Moisture, >53 lbs, <1 ppm vomi | $5.85/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 254 Mt | Glen Ewen, SK | 11/01/26 – 12/31/26 |
| Yellow Peas | Oct 29, 2026 | #2's, glyphos free, <14.5% Moisture, Soy free, | $10.00/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 42 Mt | Sinclair, MB | 11/01/26 – 01/31/27 |
| Feed Durum | Oct 29, 2026 | Feed, >60lbs/bu, <14.5% moisture, <0.05% ergot, <1… | 6.6 FOB Farm | 264.000 | Grenfell, SK | 10/29/26 – 11/11/26 |
| Green Peas | Oct 29, 2026 | Max 16% Moisture, No max bleach, full price splits | $7.50/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 176 Mt | Lampman, SK | 11/01/26 – 12/31/26 |
| Feed Barley | Oct 29, 2026 | Feed, >48 lbs, <14.8% Moisture | $5.66/bu ($260/mt) FOB Farm | Approx gross 176mt (4lds x 44mt) | Delia, AB | 11/02/26 – 11/27/26 |
| Brown Flax | Oct 29, 2026 | #1, <8% Dockage, <10% Moisture | $17.50/bu | Approx Gross 132mt (3lds x 44mt) | Camrose, AB | 11/02/26 – 11/27/26 |
| Yellow Peas | Oct 29, 2026 | #2, glyphos free, <14.5% Moisture, soy free, | $10.00/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 136 Mt | Sinclair, MB | 01/01/27 – 03/31/27 |
Total Tonnage: 1,958MT
Johnstons Connected
| Commodity | Origin | Product type | Grade | Price | Volume | Ship begin | Ship end | Delivery type | Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | Canada | Yellow | No. 2 | CAD $268.00 / MT | 132 MT | Nov 1, 2026 | Nov 30, 2026 | Delivered | Grenfell, SK, CAN |
Total Tonnage: 132MT
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Currency Update
USD into CAD: $1.3959
CAD into USD:$0.7163
Commodities Update(USD$)
Dec’26 Live Cattle: $222.325
Dec’26 Lean Hogs: $59.400
Oil (WTI): $104.34
Oil (WCS): $68.84
Gold: $3,917.64
Silver: $49.57
Bitcoin: $77,012.00
Ethereum: $2,233.42
Daily Joke
What do you call vampires who are good at highwire acts?
Acro-Bats…..
Friday Riddle
You walk into a room that contains a match, a kerosene lamp, a candle and a fireplace. What would you light first?
Answer at end of daily
Grain Bid Update
BARLEY
| Feed Barley | FOB Farm (November-December) |
| Medicine Hat, AB | $5.25-$5.55 |
| Red Deer, AB | $5.15-$5.30 |
| Edmonton, AB | $5.00-$5.15 |
| Swift Current, SK | $5.05-$5.20 |
| Saskatoon, SK | $4.95-$5.10 |
| Regina, SK | $4.95-$5.10 |
| Yorkton, SK | $4.85-$5.00 |
| Estevan, SK | $4.85-$5.00 |
| Brandon, MB | $4.85-$5.00 |
Southern Alberta Feed Barley (Delivered)
Nov-Dec: $298
Jan-Mar27: $302
Apr-June: $313
Subject To Reconfirmation*
Malt Barley
No bid
CANARY SEED
#1 Canada
$0.20-$0.21/Lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
CANOLA
*We are always looking for tough, green, sprouted or heated canola. Please reach out with any offers*
Conventional Canola
$18.00/bu
Delivered November
Southern-Alberta
Conventional Canola
Call For Bid
FOB Farm November
Saskatchewan | Manitoba
Closing Futures Prices
Jan 2027 Futures: $780.00
Mar 2027 Futures: $791.20
May 2027 Futures: $800.10
Non-Gmo Canola (Clearfield)
November-December: Call For Bid
CHICKPEAS
Kabuli Chickpeas
#2 Canada: $0.30-$0.32/lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Max 20% 7mm, Min 40% 9mm
Feed/Sample Kabuli
$0.12-0.13/lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Desi Chickpeas
Call for bid
CORN
#2CW Corn MB FOB Farm
Nov-Dec: Call For Bid
Jan-Mar: Call For Bid
Closing Futures Prices
Dec 26′ Futures: $451-6
Mar 27′ Futures: $462-0
May 27′ Futures: $470-0
Southern AB Corn (FOB)
November: $289
December: $289
January: $298
February: $298
March: $298
April: $301
May: $301
June:$305
Basis Contracts Available*
BEANS
Black Beans
Call for bid
Cranberry Beans
Call for bid
Great Northern Beans
Call for bid
Fababeans
Call for bid
Pinto Beans
Call for bid
FLAX
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: $17.50/bu
Delivered AB Facility | Prompt
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: $16.00-$16.50/bu
FOB Farm SK | Nov-Dec
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: Call For Bid
FOB Farm MB | Nov-Dec
Yellow Flax
#1 Canada: Call For Bid
Delivered AB Facility | Prompt
Yellow Flax
#1 Canada: Call For Bid
SK MB | Nov -Dec
LENTILS
Large Greens (Lairds | 2026 Crop Year)
#2 Canada: $0.28-$0.30/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.21-$0.23/lb
FOB Farm for Oct-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.19-$0.20/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Medium Greens (Richleas)
#1,#2 Can: $0.16-0.17/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Small Greens (Estons | 2026 Crop Year)
#1 Canada: $0.27-$0.28/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#2 Canada: $0.18-$0.20/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.17-$0.18/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.14-$0.16/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Red Lentils
#2 Canada: $0.23-$0.24/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.18-$0.19/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.16-$0.17/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Feed/Sample Canada: $0.14-$0.15/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
French Green Lentils
#1 Can: $0.22-$0.23/Lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Subject to Reconfirmation*
Beluga Lentils (Black)
Call for Bid
MUSTARD
Yellow Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.38-$0.40/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
Brown Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.36-$0.38/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
Oriental Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.37-$0.38/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
OATS
Milling Oats (Min: 42Lb/Bu)
$3.50-$4.25/bu
FOB Farm Oct-March | Southeast Sk | West MB
Milling Oats (Min: 42Lb/Bu)
$3.50-$4.10/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec | Saskatchewan
Feed Oats (38-40Lb/Bu)
$2.00-$2.45/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Discounts for lighter product
Freight area sensitive
Closing Futures Prices
Dec 2026 Futures: $355-0
Mar 2027 Futures: $367-4
PEAS
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: $10.50/bu
Delivered Nov-Dec
Alberta | GLYPHOSATE NOT A FACTOR
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: $8.00-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: Call For Bid
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Minimum: 22% protein
SOY FREE
S.W. Manitoba
Green Peas
#2 Canada: $9.50/bu
Delivered November
Alberta
Green Peas
#2 Canada: $8.50-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Green Peas
#3 Canada: $6.00-$6.50/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Maple Peas
Mosaic: Call For Bid
Acers: Call For Bid
Blazers: Call For Bid
Origin: Southern AB | SW SK
Feed Peas
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
AB | SK | MB
RYE
Hybrid Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Aug
Hybrid Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Open-Pollinated Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Open-Pollinated Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Note: Please note that we are seeing elevated levels of ergot in the 2026 crop. Please notify your broker of any ergot or other degrading factors and provide grading sheets, photos, or sample results when available to help ensure accurate pricing and avoid surprises at delivery.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans
US #2 or better:
$15.40-$15.80/bu
FOB Farm Nov-March
SE SK & SW Manitoba
Higher values available closer to Winnipeg*
Closing Futures Prices
Jan 27′ Futures: $1227-4
Mar 27′ Futures: $1236-2
WHEAT
#1 CWRS 14.0%
$9.75/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
November
#1 CWRS 13.5%
$9.75/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
November
#1 CWRS Low Protein
$9.00/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
November
#1 CPS 11.0% Pro
$8.50/bu Delivered
Southern -Alberta
October
#1 CWAD (Durum)
Call For Bid
FOB Farm or Delivered AB Facility
Nov-Dec
#1 CWAD (Durum)
$8.90-$9.50/Bu
FOB Farm Southeast SK
Nov-Dec
#1 CWAD | Call for Full Specs
$8.50-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm MB |Oct-Dec
Feed Wheat
$7.75/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
Nov-Dec
Feed Wheat
$6.50 | (+/-)$0.50/bu
FOB Farm Saskatchewan & Manitoba
Nov-Dec
Triticale
Call For Bid
Nov-Dec
Riddle Answer: The Match
In Loving Memory of Allan Johnston
