Global Conflict Is Driving Fertilizer Costs Up — Soil Function Protects Profitability
Nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer prices are climbing again, and the reasons are different for each product. Global tension in key energy shipping regions has slowed the movement of natural gas and oil—both essential for nitrogen fertilizer production. Most notably, the US-Israel war in Iran has been threatening closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important trading port essential to getting fertilizer precursors to North America. Even small disruptions ripple through the system, causing manufacturers to pause operations and pushing nitrogen prices sharply higher.
Phosphorus is facing its own challenges. Canada has no domestic phosphate production, so farmers here rely almost entirely on U.S. importation. Any trade friction or supply issue south of the border immediately affects Canadian prices, leaving prairie producers as price takers in an already tight market.
High fertilizer prices would be difficult enough on their own, but the bigger issue for Western Canada is moisture. While some areas are currently sitting at average moisture reserves, forecasts point toward another year of mid-season drought risk across southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Under dry conditions, fertilizer efficiency drops dramatically. Nitrogen mineralization slows (that’s the rate that soil microbes can convert unavailable organic N into plant usable versions), nitrate can’t move through the soil (it only moves with water), and stressed roots struggle to take up what’s there. Phosphorus becomes even less available, since it relies on root interception—something that simply doesn’t happen when roots are shallow or moisture limited. The P is there, but the plants can’t get it.
This creates a tough situation: expensive fertilizer with limited return on investment.
So how do you protect profitability in a year like this?
The answer is a soil health strategy to maximize the returns of the inputs you do choose to apply. At Johnston’s Regenerative, we believe profitability starts with a soil system that can buffer volatility—whether it’s weather, fertilizer prices, or global supply chains. Farming always has been and always will be a series of trade-off’s, inputs vs outputs. And this year’s trade off decisions are likely between achieving yields and paying your fertility bill. Johnston’s Regenerative’s team of agronomists can help you minimize that gap by building soil that captures- and keeps- high amounts of moisture, while squeezing every ounce of efficiency from your nutrient profile.
Profitable farming starts with a functioning soil system.
The most effective way to protect profitability in this environment is not necessarily to increase or decrease fertilizer rates, but to improve your soil’s ability to cycle and supply nutrients. A functioning soil system—one with strong structure, active biology, and balanced chemistry—delivers more plant available nutrients per millimetre of moisture.
A peer-reviewed study from the Journal of Soil and Water Conservation published that a 1% increase in soil organic matter on sandy soils typical of the Canadian prairies, resulted in a 1.5% increase in average water holding capacity- or 1 inch of organic matter holds 25,000 gallons/acre(1). In a dry year, that extra moisture can be the difference between a crop that hangs on and a crop that fails.
At Johnston’s Regenerative, our agronomy team is built around this principle. We help producers understand their soil’s physical, chemical, and biological limitations so they can make fertility decisions that match the soil’s true capacity. Our PhD soil scientists and certified agronomists translate your soil data into practical, field specific fertility plans that improve nutrient efficiency, reduce unnecessary inputs, and build long term resilience.
Anyone can look like a good farmer when conditions are perfect. The great ones are defined by how they perform in the challenging years. We’re here to help you be one of the greats. For more information read Johnston’s Regenerative 10 Simple Steps to Profitability or contact your Johnston’s Regenerative Agronomist.
Reference:
- Libohova, Z., Seybold, C. A., Wysocki, D. A., Wills, S. A., Schoeneberger, P. J., Williams, C. J., Lindbo, D. L., Stott, D. E., & Owens, P. R. (2018). Reevaluating the effects of soil organic matter and other properties on available water-holding capacity using the National Cooperative Soil Survey Characterization Database. Journal of Soil and Water Conservation, 73(4), 411-421.
