Canada Is Shipping Grain 20 Per Cent Faster Than Last Year. Here Is Why That Matters for Your Winter Delivery
If you want one number to cheer up a late, wet harvest, try this one: through week 10 of the crop year, Canadian grain exports were 9.63 million tonnes, compared with 8.05 million a year earlier. That is about 20 per cent ahead, based on the Canadian Grain Commission data as reported by the Western Producer for the week ended October 11.
What the numbers say
Terminal receipts are up even more, at 11.54 million tonnes year to date against 9.53 million last year, or roughly 21 per cent. Producer deliveries are only up about 1.4 per cent, at 14.36 million tonnes against 14.16 million. In other words, the grain is moving through the system faster than farmers are delivering it, which tells me buyers have been pulling hard.
The week itself showed the same story. Exports were 1.161 million tonnes, up from 1.074 million the week before, and wheat exports jumped to 618,800 tonnes from 419,100. Total commercial stocks rose to 7.46 million tonnes, with canola stocks up to 1.391 million from 1.205 million, while wheat stocks fell to 3.03 million tonnes from 3.17 million.
What it means for basis and prices
Strong export movement is the kind of demand that supports basis, even when futures are choppy. It also says the system is working. Under a late harvest, getting this much grain through the ports is a credit to everyone from the elevator staff to the railways. I would not read it as a forecast for prices, since canola futures are still sitting below where they were a few weeks ago. Demand is one input; so are crude oil, currency and the politics we write about elsewhere in this issue.
The winter squeeze is real
Both railways published grain plans for the 2026-27 crop year. CN said it expects to move 30 to 33 million tonnes, against a maximum sustainable capacity of 36.7 million. At full capacity it can handle up to 7,950 cars a week outside winter, dropping to 6,400 in winter. CPKC planned for up to 700,000 tonnes a week while the Port of Thunder Bay is open and up to 540,000 tonnes a week in winter.
Do the arithmetic. CN’s winter ceiling is about 20 per cent below its non-winter ceiling, and CPKC’s is about 23 per cent below. If shipments keep running at this pace, the squeeze arrives when cold weather cuts capacity. As we noted last week, CN’s labour contract also expires on December 31, so there is added reason to be cautious about leaving everything to January.
What I would do
Talk to your buyer now about shipment windows and delivery slots for November through February. Move contracted grain while the system has room. If you plan to deliver in the new year, ask what happens to your shipment if rail service is disrupted. And keep your grain dry and graded, because the system moves clean grain first.
Watch the weekly Canadian Grain Commission data for any slowdown in terminal receipts, and watch for news on the CN bargaining table.
By Joel Merkosky, Chief Operating Officer, Johnston’s Grain
Financial Update
The bond market is pricing in an 85% chance of a Bank of Canada rate hike on Wednesday morning
Market Rate Snapshot provided by Glengarry Farm Finance (For General Information only).
–Current Canadian Prime Rate: 4.45%
–Estimated 5-Year Fixed Lending Rate at Canadian Lending Institutions: 5.2% – 5.5% (October 26)
-Next Bank of Canada rate decision: October 28, 2026 (rate increase very likely).
Financing Tip of the Week: The Advance Payments Program Loan Mistake That Could Cost You 40% Interest
The Advance Payments Program (Cash Advance) offers the lowest-cost operating capital available to farmers. The first $250,000 is at 0.0% interest, and an additional $750,000 is available at Prime minus 0.5%. However, the program can cause a lot of problems for farmers if they don’t pay off balances in full by the due date. Visit https://johnstons.glengarry.ca/post/advance-payments-program-loans-farmers to learn how to deal with some of the challenges of this program
Rates vary by lender, borrower profile, loan characteristics, and market conditions. Information is provided for general market commentary only and does not represent rates offered by Glengarry Farm Finance.
Glyphosate & Glufosinate: Market Update & Influences
Canadian herbicide prices have strengthened since September. Glyphosate is moving upward comparatively gradually, while glufosinate faces more pronounced technical-grade supply pressure.
The latest published Johnstons Grain pricing indicates increases of approximately 5.2% for Glyphosate 540 and 13.4% for Glufosinate 150 compared with the September reference prices. These developments suggest that additional cost pressure remains possible heading into the winter procurement period and spring 2027.
Canadian Farm-Gate Price Comparison
| Product | September Price | Latest Listed Price | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Glyphosate 540 | $5.79/L | $6.09/L | +5.2% |
| Glufosinate 150 | $4.49/L | $5.09/L | +13.4% |
All Canadian retail prices are expressed in Canadian dollars per litre. The latest listed prices are from October 22, 2026, and should be confirmed before contracting.
Chinese Technical-Grade Markets (USD)
China remains a major source of herbicide active ingredients used in North American formulations.Recent Chinese technical-grade market observations indicate continued upward pressure on both glyphosate and glufosinate, although the magnitude of these increases differs considerably.
Glyphosate 95% Technical
- September reference: Approximately US$4,071 per metric tonne.
- October 11–20: Approximately US$4,148 per metric tonne.
- Market direction: Moderately higher.
Glufosinate 95% Technical
- September reference: Approximately US$8,571 per metric tonne.
- October indications: Approximately US$9,286–$10,000 per metric tonne.
- Market direction: Significantly higher, with continued supply-side pressure.
These values are approximate conversions of Chinese wholesale quotations using an illustrative exchange rate of 7.00 Chinese yuan per US dollar. They are not historical foreign-exchange-adjusted transaction prices or Canadian retail quotations.
What Is Driving Herbicide Costs?
1. Glufosinate Supply Constraints
Glufosinate continues to experience more significant price pressure than glyphosate. Recent industry reporting identifies several contributing factors, including tightening technical-grade inventories, shortages of key chemical intermediates and manufacturing constraints. These conditions have reduced available supply and increased the risk of further replacement-cost increases for importers and distributors. If these constraints persist through the winter procurement period, additional upward pressure on Canadian retail prices remains possible.
2. Energy, Freight and Manufacturing Costs
Energy and transportation costs continue to influence global chemical production and delivery expenses. However, the latest Chinese market data indicates that not all manufacturing inputs are increasing simultaneously.
During the October 11–20 reporting period:
- Diesel prices increased approximately 2.7%.
- Liquefied natural gas increased approximately 9.1%.
- Methanol declined approximately 6.2%.
This mixed performance suggests that current herbicide price increases cannot be attributed exclusively to rising energy costs. Manufacturing capacity, chemical intermediate availability, export policies and product-specific supply conditions are increasingly important factors. Geopolitical uncertainty and potential disruptions to international energy infrastructure also remain risks for global shipping and production costs.
3. Seasonal Restocking Ahead of Spring 2027
Northern Hemisphere chemical purchasing typically strengthens through fall and winter as distributors and retailers prepare for spring applications. This seasonal procurement activity can support technical-grade prices, particularly when inventories are already constrained. However, the strength of international demand remains an important variable. If Chinese manufacturers increase production or export demand weakens, some of the current upward pressure could moderate.
Spring 2027 Herbicide Price Outlook
Glyphosate — Cautiously Firm
Chinese glyphosate technical-grade prices have continued to strengthen, although increases remain comparatively moderate. Available production capacity and uncertain international demand could limit further increases. Nevertheless, seasonal procurement activity, transportation costs and currency fluctuations may contribute to additional Canadian replacement-cost pressure. Our current outlook remains cautiously firm, with further increases possible but not guaranteed.
Glufosinate — Greater Upside Price Risk
Glufosinate faces a more pronounced supply-driven pricing environment. Tight technical-grade inventories, shortages of chemical intermediates and manufacturing constraints continue to support higher wholesale quotations. Unless these conditions improve, Canadian importers and distributors may encounter additional replacement-cost increases. Of the two major non-selective herbicides, glufosinate currently appears to carry the greater risk of additional price appreciation heading into spring 2027.
What This Means for Prairie Producers
With spring 2027 purchasing decisions approaching, producers should consider both price and product availability when planning chemical requirements. Canadian retail prices have already absorbed some of the increases identified in September. However, continued strength in Chinese technical-grade markets means replacement inventory may carry higher costs than existing Canadian stock. For growers with established spring chemical requirements, securing competitive pricing on available inventory may provide greater certainty than waiting for a broad market correction. That said, further price increases are not guaranteed. Changes in Chinese manufacturing output, international export demand, currency exchange rates, freight costs and global energy markets could materially alter the pricing outlook over the coming months.
Our Recommendation
Johnstons Grain encourages producers to evaluate their anticipated spring 2027 herbicide requirements early and compare current inventory pricing against the potential cost of future replacement shipments. While glyphosate pricing appears comparatively stable, the continued strength of glufosinate technical-grade markets warrants particular attention. Proactive purchasing may help manage pricing uncertainty and improve product availability heading into spring. We will continue monitoring Chinese manufacturing activity, technical-grade prices, global freight conditions and Canadian retail markets as new information becomes available.
Have Grain to Market?
Johnstons Grain continues to work with buyers and producers across Western Canada, sourcing grain and identifying opportunities across multiple markets.
For current bids, available movement windows or marketing inquiries, contact our grain marketing team.
| In Search of The Following Grains | Location |
| Malt Barley | Copeland or Synergy ONLY | Calgary & Surrounding Areas | East-Central AB |
| Organic Brown Flax | Delivered to Saskatchewan Facility | November |
Market information is provided for general reference. Prices, movement windows and buyer specifications are subject to change and confirmation.
CHEMICAL BASE PRICING:
Glyphosate 540: $6.09/L
Glufosinate 150: $5.09/L
Glufosinate 200: $7.99/L
Diquat 240: $7.99/L
Liquid H: $1.80/L
Imazamox+Bentazon: $30.09/L
- 500L or 1000L Totes (Subject to Availability)
Company Directory & Locations
Calgary Head Office
Hours: 8:00AM-5:00PM Monday to Friday
Address: Suite 2800, 150 – 9th Ave SW, Calgary AB
Phone:1.844.324.7778
Email: info@johnstonsgrain.com
Maple Creek, SK Facility (Warehouse & Retail Location)
Hours: 8:00AM-5:00PM Monday to Friday
Address: 7218 SK-21, Maple Creek, SK
Manager and Sales Lead: Terry Sunderland
Phone: 1.639.574.0116
Email:terry@johnstonsgrain.com
Crop Protection
Calgary Northeast (Calgary Office): Garrett Forster – (604) 613-8813 (garrett.forster@johnstonsgrain.com)
Calgary South (Calgary Office): Kurt Paskal – (403) 899-0308 (kurt@johnstonsgrain.com)
Edmonton, AB Area: Devan Launer – (780) 239-4786 (devan@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Northwest, SK (Lashburn): Kylar Hope – (306) 361-0053 (kylar@johnstonsgrain.com)
Southwest-Sask: Randy Adrian – (306) 294-0042 (randy@johnstonsgrain.com)
Sask & Mb: Karlee Stanhope – (306) 434-7637 (karlee@johnstonsrgrain.com)
Grain Brokerage
Garrett Forster | Sr Grain Broker – (604) 613-8813 (garrett.forster@johnstonsgrain.com)
Kurt Paskal | Sr Grain Broker – (403) 899-0308 (kurt@johnstonsgrain.com)
Karlee Stanhope | Sr Grain Broker – (306) 434-7637 (karlee@johnstonsgrain.com)
Carli Miller | Jr Grain Broker – (1833) 324-7778 (carli@johnstonsgrain.com)
Agronomists
Deepak Chaunkaria: (844) 324-7778 ( deepak@johnstonsgrain.com)
Randy Adrian: (306) 294-0042 (randy@johnstonsgrain.com)
Regenerative Agronomy
Dr. Clemence Muitire, PHD Soil Science | Director of Regenerative Agronomy: (403) 585-3518 (clemence@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Frank Koch, Regenerative Agronomist: (403) 632-6066 (frank@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Travis Albrecht, Director of Johnston’s Regenerative: (403) 502-6332 (travis@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Michael Launer, Director of Johnston’s Regenerative: (780) 232-0358 (michael@johnstonsregenerative.com)
Trades Update
Johnstons Grain
| Contract Date | Commodity | Grade | Price | Quantity | Seller Location | Shipment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | Feed Barley | Feed, >48 lbs, <14.8% Moisture | $5.00/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 218 Mt | Moose Jaw, SK | 11/01/26 – 11/07/26 |
| 2026-10-27 | Brown Flax | #1, <10% Moisture, <10% Dockage, <0.5 ppm cadmium, | $17.50/Bushel FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 84 Mt | Sinclair, MB | 11/01/26 – 12/31/26 |
| 2026-10-27 | Screenings | Flax screenings | $140/Mt FOB Farm | Approx. Gross 36 Mt | Alameda, SK | 10/27/26 – 11/12/26 |
| 2026-10-27 | CWRS Wheat | #2ob – 13.5 CWRS, Max 14.5% Moisture, Min 60lbs | $9.60/bu | Approx Gross 484mt (11lds x 44mt) | Strathmore, AB | 10/28/26 – 11/13/26 |
| 2026-10-27 | Brown Flax | #1, <10% Dockage, <10% Moisture | $17.25/bu | Approx Gross 127mt (5000bu) | Taber, AB | 10/28/26 – 11/13/26 |
| 2026-10-27 | CPSR Wheat | CPSR Feed, Max 14.5% moisture, Min 58lbs, Max 1ppm… | $295/mt ($8.03/bu) | Approx Gross 1032mt (24lds x 43mt) | Vulcan, AB | 10/28/26 – 11/30/26 |
Total Tonnage: 1,981MT
Johnstons Connected
| Origin | Commodity | Product Type | Grade | Price | Volume | Ship Begin | Ship End | Delivery Type | Destination |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Canada | Barley | – | Feed | CAD $300.00 / MT | 516 MT | 2027-01-01 | 2027-01-31 | Delivered | Lethbridge, AB, CAN |
| Canada | Barley | – | Feed | CAD $300.00 / MT | 516 MT | 2027-01-01 | 2027-01-31 | Delivered | Lethbridge, AB, CAN |
Total Tonnage: 1032MT
Johnstons Connected Trading Platform
Access the link below in order to create your Johnstons Connected Trading Platform account. Once registered and verified, you’ll be able to set Target Price Agreements (TPAs) across our entire grain marketing network granting you access to large selection of commercial buyers & farm grain resellers, making it easier to buy and sell grain at the price that you want!
Johnston’s Connected Home Page
Western Canadian Weather Forecast
CALGARY SASKATOON WINNIPEGBulk Fuel
To request quotes from the largest bulk provider of Esso branded fuels in Western Canada, follow the link below to our website and fill out a very simple application form.
Currency Update
USD into CAD: $1.4038
CAD into USD:$0.7123
Commodities Update(USD$)
Dec’26 Live Cattle: $228.400
Dec’26 Lean Hogs: $59.850
Oil (WTI): $103.46
Oil (WCS): $66.45
Gold: $4,052.55
Silver: $53.59
Bitcoin: $80,476.00
Ethereum: $2,329.92
Daily Joke
Why don’t eggs tell each other secrets? Because they might crack up.
Grain Bid Update
BARLEY
| Feed Barley | FOB Farm (November-December) |
| Medicine Hat, AB | $5.25-$5.55 |
| Red Deer, AB | $5.15-$5.30 |
| Edmonton, AB | $5.00-$5.15 |
| Swift Current, SK | $5.05-$5.20 |
| Saskatoon, SK | $4.95-$5.10 |
| Regina, SK | $4.95-$5.10 |
| Yorkton, SK | $4.85-$5.00 |
| Estevan, SK | $4.85-$5.00 |
| Brandon, MB | $4.85-$5.00 |
Southern Alberta Feed Barley (Delivered)
Nov-Dec: $298
Jan-Mar27: $302
Apr-June: $313
Subject To Reconfirmation*
Malt Barley
No bid
CANARY SEED
#1 Canada
$0.20-$0.21/Lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
CANOLA
*We are always looking for tough, green, sprouted or heated canola. Please reach out with any offers*
Conventional Canola
$18.00/bu
Delivered November
Southern-Alberta
Conventional Canola
Call For Bid
FOB Farm November
Saskatchewan | Manitoba
Closing Futures Prices
Jan 2027 Futures: $790.60
Mar 2027 Futures: $802.60
Non-Gmo Canola (Clearfield)
November-December: Call For Bid
CHICKPEAS
Kabuli Chickpeas
#2 Canada: $0.30-$0.32/lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Max 20% 7mm, Min 40% 9mm
Feed/Sample Kabuli
$0.12-0.13/lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Desi Chickpeas
Call for bid
CORN
#2CW Corn MB FOB Farm
Nov-Dec: Call For Bid
Jan-Mar: Call For Bid
Closing Futures Prices
Dec 26′ Futures: $451-6
Mar 27′ Futures: $465-0
May 27′ Futures: $474-0
Southern AB Corn (FOB)
November: $292
December: $292
January: $302
February: $302
March: $303
April: $308
May: $308
June:$311
Basis Contracts Available*
BEANS
Black Beans
Call for bid
Cranberry Beans
Call for bid
Great Northern Beans
Call for bid
Fababeans
Call for bid
Pinto Beans
Call for bid
FLAX
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: $17.00/bu
Delivered AB Facility | Prompt
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: $16.00-$16.50/bu
FOB Farm SK | Nov-Dec
Brown Flax
#1 Canada: Call For Bid
FOB Farm MB | Nov-Dec
Yellow Flax
#1 Canada: $18.00/bu
Delivered AB Facility | Prompt
Yellow Flax
#1 Canada: Call For Bid
SK MB | Nov -Dec
LENTILS
Large Greens (Lairds | 2026 Crop Year)
#2 Canada: $0.28-$0.30/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.21-$0.23/lb
FOB Farm for Oct-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.19-$0.20/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Medium Greens (Richleas)
#1,#2 Can: $0.16-0.17/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Small Greens (Estons | 2026 Crop Year)
#1 Canada: $0.27-$0.28/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#2 Canada: $0.18-$0.20/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.17-$0.18/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.14-$0.16/lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Red Lentils
#2 Canada: $0.23-$0.24/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
X3 Canada: $0.18-$0.19/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
#3 Canada: $0.16-$0.17/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
Feed/Sample Canada: $0.14-$0.15/Lb
FOB Farm for Nov-Dec
French Green Lentils
#1 Can: $0.22-$0.23/Lb
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Subject to Reconfirmation*
Beluga Lentils (Black)
Call for Bid
MUSTARD
Yellow Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.38-$0.40/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
Brown Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.36-$0.38/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
Oriental Mustard
#1 Canada: $0.37-$0.38/lb
FOB farm for Nov-Dec
OATS
Milling Oats (Min: 42Lb/Bu)
$3.50-$4.25/bu
FOB Farm Oct-March | Southeast Sk | West MB
Milling Oats (Min: 42Lb/Bu)
$3.50-$4.10/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec | Saskatchewan
Feed Oats (38-40Lb/Bu)
$2.00-$2.45/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Discounts for lighter product
Freight area sensitive
Closing Futures Prices
Dec 2026 Futures: $355-0
Mar 2027 Futures: $367-4
PEAS
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: $9.75/bu
Delivered Nov-Dec
Alberta | GLYPHOSATE NOT A FACTOR
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: $8.00-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Yellow Peas
#2 Canada: Call For Bid
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Minimum: 22% protein
SOY FREE
S.W. Manitoba
Green Peas
#2 Canada: $9.50/bu
Delivered Oct–Nov
Alberta
Green Peas
#2 Canada: $8.50-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Green Peas
#3 Canada: $6.00-$6.50/bu
FOB Farm Nov-Dec
Saskatchewan
Maple Peas
Mosaic: Call For Bid
Acers: Call For Bid
Blazers: Call For Bid
Origin: Southern AB | SW SK
Feed Peas
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
AB | SK | MB
RYE
Hybrid Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Aug
Hybrid Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Open-Pollinated Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Open-Pollinated Rye
Call For Bid
FOB farm Nov-Dec
Note: Please note that we are seeing elevated levels of ergot in the 2026 crop. Please notify your broker of any ergot or other degrading factors and provide grading sheets, photos, or sample results when available to help ensure accurate pricing and avoid surprises at delivery.
SOYBEANS
Soybeans
US #2 or better:
$15.40-$15.80/bu
FOB Farm Nov-March
SE SK & SW Manitoba
Higher values available closer to Winnipeg*
Closing Futures Prices
Jan 27′ Futures: $1249-6
Mar 27′ Futures: $1258-2
WHEAT
#1 CWRS 14.0%
$10.00/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
November
#1 CWRS 13.5%
$9.75/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
November
#1 CPS 11.0% Pro
$8.75/bu Delivered
Southern -Alberta
October
#1 CWAD (Durum)
Call For Bid
FOB Farm or Delivered AB Facility
Nov-Dec
#1 CWAD (Durum)
$8.90-$9.50/Bu
FOB Farm Southeast SK
Nov-Dec
#1 CWAD | Call for Full Specs
$8.50-$9.00/bu
FOB Farm MB |Oct-Dec
Feed Wheat
$8.00/bu
Delivered Southern-Alberta
Nov-Dec
Feed Wheat
$6.50 | (+/-)$0.50/bu
FOB Farm Saskatchewan & Manitoba
Nov-Dec
Triticale
Call For Bid
Nov-Dec
In Loving Memory of Allan Johnston
